* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 38 34 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 7 8 8 11 13 15 20 22 26 27 30 30 29 29 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 7 3 3 0 -1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 353 353 322 313 300 260 257 241 247 252 270 271 255 274 286 284 311 SST (C) 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.6 24.0 24.4 24.1 24.4 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 116 113 112 109 109 103 107 104 107 113 115 116 120 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -55.2 -55.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 50 46 42 37 32 30 29 28 26 26 23 23 27 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 20 20 18 17 14 13 10 9 8 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 20 34 48 47 45 40 42 43 31 43 30 30 11 -15 -33 -46 -64 200 MB DIV 0 -3 0 -10 -12 -1 -9 -27 -26 -20 -11 -9 -15 -24 -13 -26 -24 700-850 TADV 4 6 10 7 8 12 5 1 -5 -2 -5 -2 -4 1 4 1 4 LAND (KM) 1043 1091 1145 1208 1275 1435 1627 1831 1981 1936 1699 1463 1233 1032 908 881 873 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.6 123.5 124.5 125.4 127.4 129.6 131.8 134.0 136.3 138.6 140.9 143.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -16. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -31. -36. -39. -44. -46. -50. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.6 121.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 334.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##