* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 43 44 44 48 53 56 59 58 54 50 48 46 44 41 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 43 44 44 48 53 56 59 58 54 50 48 46 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 46 46 45 44 44 43 42 40 36 32 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 5 4 7 7 10 11 16 13 15 14 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 0 6 6 9 4 6 6 0 SHEAR DIR 36 32 24 43 69 334 4 316 319 282 272 282 282 286 281 266 249 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.5 25.7 25.0 25.2 24.5 24.9 24.8 24.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 137 135 134 124 127 126 128 119 112 115 108 112 111 110 116 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 64 62 59 54 51 48 43 40 37 34 35 33 31 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 20 21 21 22 24 25 28 27 27 26 26 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 47 41 33 26 34 41 48 45 57 63 80 88 88 78 61 200 MB DIV 47 44 19 6 22 19 13 -14 1 -1 0 -22 -10 -17 3 -6 -18 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -9 -2 0 3 4 5 6 5 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 725 761 816 840 877 982 1106 1207 1336 1474 1627 1786 1967 2100 1860 1631 1393 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.2 117.3 118.3 120.1 121.8 123.5 125.2 126.9 128.7 130.5 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 5 5 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 12. 11. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 18. 14. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.5 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 21.7% 15.4% 15.2% 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.8% 5.3% 5.1% 0.0% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##