* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 80 74 66 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 80 74 66 47 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 76 65 46 36 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 42 44 41 37 39 44 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 8 -2 -1 9 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 198 181 170 172 181 182 176 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.7 28.1 25.2 24.2 16.9 13.3 6.3 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 124 140 109 102 75 71 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 109 120 93 88 70 68 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -48.6 -48.9 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 58 58 59 72 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 52 54 52 48 40 33 27 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 211 219 217 202 210 214 227 282 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 133 133 89 80 96 88 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 61 101 52 -13 -26 -19 -36 -124 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 850 651 499 361 49 11 69 511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 36.4 38.2 39.7 41.2 44.7 48.8 52.8 56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 61.8 62.2 62.3 62.4 61.3 58.7 54.8 50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 15 17 20 23 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 5 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -30. -40. -46. -51. -55. -58. -62. -63. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -28. -29. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 0. -6. -17. -26. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -11. -19. -38. -60. -79. -85. -89. -95. -99.-105.-113.-119.-121.-125. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.6 61.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 7( 16) 3( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 80 74 66 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 82 76 68 49 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 67 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 67 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 47 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT