* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 75 71 55 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 75 71 55 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 75 69 51 37 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 44 43 45 40 41 45 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 14 7 -2 2 5 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 227 199 182 170 177 181 180 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.3 26.9 27.9 26.0 21.2 16.4 12.3 5.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 120 126 138 116 85 74 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 107 110 118 99 77 70 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -49.6 -49.8 -50.8 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 54 55 57 63 67 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 49 52 54 52 43 36 30 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 215 215 222 227 215 227 199 209 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 75 132 104 80 94 77 79 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 40 84 88 51 -13 -22 -16 -39 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1264 1080 874 694 515 275 18 -53 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 34.1 36.0 37.6 39.2 42.0 45.4 49.3 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.3 62.4 62.8 63.2 62.8 60.8 57.2 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 18 16 15 16 21 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 0 6 41 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -14. -23. -31. -37. -40. -44. -47. -51. -52. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -31. -32. -35. -38. -41. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 5. -2. -11. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 15. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -9. -25. -45. -62. -75. -79. -84. -88. -93.-101.-106.-109.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.2 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 76 75 71 55 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 76 72 56 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 71 55 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 66 50 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT