* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 39 37 34 32 28 23 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 36 34 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 34 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 21 16 18 21 36 45 45 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 236 235 262 271 260 244 237 236 239 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.6 29.4 29.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 148 146 144 149 149 144 158 153 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 123 120 118 123 125 122 134 128 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.8 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 2 2 1 2 4 3 5 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 52 51 45 45 45 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 15 9 -5 -9 14 4 14 -13 -4 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 39 17 11 18 5 -4 18 -1 -12 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 8 4 4 0 -4 0 1 -1 7 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 63 17 -2 -21 -21 -18 -16 -133 -227 -337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.9 32.2 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.2 95.3 94.1 92.7 91.3 89.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 33 32 33 34 38 39 14 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -17. -22. -26. -26. -26. -26. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.8 95.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.3% 9.6% 7.0% 6.3% 8.8% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 15.2% 17.2% 16.5% 3.5% 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 10.2% 9.0% 7.8% 3.3% 4.6% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 36 34 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 42 36 34 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 35 33 29 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 29 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT