* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 25 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 24 31 30 27 24 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 1 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 281 294 297 307 298 301 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 134 131 130 131 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 128 124 122 122 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 50 50 54 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 55 55 48 28 19 1 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 21 5 15 35 24 17 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1450 1403 1368 1339 1311 1274 1171 1068 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.3 47.5 48.4 49.4 51.0 52.3 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 35 34 25 19 21 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 989 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 9. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 45.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.64 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.3% 5.6% 4.1% 3.3% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.9% 1.5% 2.1% 0.9% 3.5% 2.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 2.9% 0.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 40 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 39 41 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 26 27 27 26 26 27 30 34 36 38 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 22 22 21 21 22 25 29 31 33 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT