* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 102 100 97 91 89 79 56 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 102 100 97 91 89 79 56 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 102 100 97 94 92 95 90 67 42 29 31 34 39 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 11 10 5 11 44 49 46 38 45 42 37 39 38 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -2 2 6 10 -2 11 4 3 4 11 14 1 1 SHEAR DIR 277 290 297 290 309 233 193 190 176 187 191 193 227 258 261 255 263 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.4 27.6 25.9 27.7 21.1 16.2 13.8 8.9 10.7 9.5 9.1 9.7 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 138 129 133 116 135 85 73 70 67 67 66 66 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 128 119 112 117 102 116 77 68 67 65 66 65 64 65 64 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -49.3 -49.3 -48.5 -48.9 -49.7 -50.5 -50.3 -53.1 -56.1 -57.7 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 2.1 1.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 52 54 62 62 56 64 64 57 64 61 56 60 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 40 40 41 39 41 47 54 54 44 32 25 27 30 23 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 50 58 84 110 161 206 172 171 207 226 203 217 135 38 13 -35 200 MB DIV 31 8 10 28 50 59 80 169 92 110 72 75 56 39 30 31 22 700-850 TADV 7 -5 0 4 0 3 -1 35 0 -19 -29 -74 45 123 109 41 55 LAND (KM) 1076 1112 1160 1224 1292 1298 986 607 303 35 -46 136 456 809 1173 1517 1215 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.6 31.8 35.1 38.8 42.2 45.4 48.4 51.3 53.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.5 61.3 61.7 62.2 62.2 61.8 61.8 61.5 60.4 57.8 53.6 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 14 18 18 17 17 19 19 18 17 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 25 14 8 17 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -35. -47. -56. -64. -70. -77. -81. -84. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -8. -13. -15. -15. -14. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 5. 14. 13. 0. -17. -28. -25. -21. -29. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -14. -16. -26. -49. -73. -91. -93. -94.-107.-122.-124. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.3 59.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 818.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 22( 57) 20( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 32 3( 34) 0( 34) 0( 34) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 103 102 102 100 97 91 89 79 56 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 103 103 101 98 92 90 80 57 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 101 99 96 90 88 78 55 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 93 90 84 82 72 49 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 83 77 75 65 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 103 94 88 85 82 76 74 64 41 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 103 102 93 87 83 77 75 65 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS