* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 112 110 101 99 93 96 89 68 42 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 112 110 101 99 93 96 89 68 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 110 107 98 91 97 98 79 48 34 28 33 35 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 12 8 13 13 5 28 50 48 33 38 32 27 15 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 0 -4 0 5 13 4 4 9 4 0 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 227 226 246 285 273 284 252 201 193 165 182 191 194 183 204 260 249 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.9 24.1 17.3 14.0 12.9 9.0 5.7 9.8 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 147 131 130 131 138 101 74 69 68 65 63 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 138 136 131 114 113 116 121 88 69 65 65 63 N/A 63 62 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -48.8 -48.3 -48.3 -49.9 -51.2 -51.9 -52.1 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.7 3.3 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 44 45 44 51 62 63 56 56 61 65 73 75 69 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 41 40 40 41 42 39 40 41 53 55 47 34 26 22 18 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 80 66 62 52 47 86 139 205 207 219 219 230 229 191 107 102 95 200 MB DIV 47 37 -1 17 18 22 63 81 95 109 90 92 89 54 43 47 17 700-850 TADV 15 12 14 5 -3 5 5 1 80 19 -10 0 -2 -20 -3 41 76 LAND (KM) 1072 1066 1076 1097 1129 1239 1377 1135 750 384 77 57 -7 22 195 436 679 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.9 30.8 33.7 37.4 41.2 44.4 47.1 49.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.8 58.6 59.5 60.3 61.6 62.1 61.8 61.7 62.0 61.4 59.8 57.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 12 17 18 17 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 39 36 32 11 9 12 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -17. -27. -37. -47. -57. -66. -74. -81. -85. -89. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -4. -3. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -2. 12. 15. 3. -16. -27. -33. -37. -36. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -5. -14. -16. -22. -19. -26. -47. -73. -91.-102.-109.-112.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.5 57.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 923.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 29( 66) 23( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 44( 56) 21( 65) 1( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 112 112 110 101 99 93 96 89 68 45 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 112 112 110 101 99 93 96 89 68 45 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 109 100 98 92 95 88 67 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 94 92 86 89 82 61 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 87 85 79 82 75 54 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 91 89 83 86 79 58 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 112 103 97 93 91 85 88 81 60 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS