* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 113 112 109 109 107 105 101 99 103 94 72 53 38 29 22 V (KT) LAND 115 113 113 112 109 109 107 105 101 99 103 94 61 47 32 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 113 112 111 108 103 97 95 94 90 62 38 34 33 30 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 14 16 5 10 3 21 41 54 40 30 36 31 31 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -6 0 0 -1 2 11 6 -1 1 0 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 229 218 209 214 260 275 254 220 183 190 169 194 194 189 192 194 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 28.1 20.6 17.2 13.0 9.0 10.2 6.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 152 152 152 151 143 137 132 128 141 83 74 68 64 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 140 139 139 136 126 119 115 111 120 75 69 65 63 62 62 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -49.2 -48.6 -48.6 -49.4 -50.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.5 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 45 43 46 48 59 60 51 46 51 62 68 77 72 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 45 53 52 42 33 27 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 68 70 72 62 51 50 121 164 219 214 189 193 198 204 230 214 200 MB DIV 48 46 52 34 16 23 8 52 53 81 128 64 106 75 93 66 66 700-850 TADV 13 15 13 13 17 5 2 0 6 -11 62 0 -6 -1 9 5 -4 LAND (KM) 1155 1109 1076 1057 1053 1072 1150 1290 1213 942 596 261 -44 106 20 -65 72 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.1 22.9 23.8 24.6 26.4 28.1 29.8 32.2 35.3 38.6 42.1 45.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.9 56.6 57.4 58.1 60.0 61.8 63.1 63.2 62.7 62.6 62.9 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 14 16 17 17 16 14 11 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 35 30 27 30 37 24 16 10 14 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -32. -41. -47. -54. -62. -70. -76. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 4. 10. 20. 18. 3. -10. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. -12. -21. -43. -62. -77. -86. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.2 55.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 875.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 28( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 38( 68) 58( 86) 85( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 113 112 109 109 107 105 101 99 103 94 61 47 32 28 29 18HR AGO 115 114 114 113 110 110 108 106 102 100 104 95 62 48 33 29 30 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 107 107 105 103 99 97 101 92 59 45 30 26 27 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 102 100 98 94 92 96 87 54 40 25 21 22 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 94 92 88 86 90 81 48 34 19 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 94 92 90 86 84 88 79 46 32 17 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 113 113 104 98 94 92 90 86 84 88 79 46 32 17 DIS DIS