* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 99 99 100 102 102 105 104 101 97 93 100 92 76 62 50 V (KT) LAND 95 97 99 99 100 102 102 105 104 101 97 93 100 92 76 61 43 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 100 101 102 104 105 106 102 97 91 89 87 69 49 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 13 16 15 14 10 5 8 2 11 38 42 39 34 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 0 -2 -3 1 -6 -1 1 5 13 -1 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 262 260 245 231 231 196 201 273 311 148 202 209 201 184 198 205 214 SST (C) 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.4 28.4 28.3 27.2 26.5 28.0 24.1 17.7 14.1 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 137 142 142 147 154 161 159 142 141 127 120 139 101 75 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 132 132 136 141 147 141 123 122 110 104 118 87 70 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -49.3 -48.6 -48.1 -48.8 -49.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.7 2.7 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 46 44 43 44 44 51 58 60 46 42 43 61 74 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 35 37 40 40 41 41 41 41 42 52 52 45 41 38 850 MB ENV VOR 109 100 96 74 78 79 70 56 86 138 170 176 176 179 167 205 181 200 MB DIV 81 64 56 44 53 47 -5 18 21 50 33 33 119 90 71 55 51 700-850 TADV 14 12 11 13 13 11 14 0 0 0 12 18 35 15 -8 -12 7 LAND (KM) 1267 1274 1228 1168 1118 1052 1027 1075 1170 1306 1183 957 670 370 113 58 -6 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.2 21.9 23.6 25.3 27.0 28.5 30.1 32.2 34.9 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.5 54.2 54.9 55.7 57.3 59.2 61.0 62.4 63.4 63.6 63.2 62.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 10 12 14 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 38 42 40 38 27 34 41 20 19 11 8 51 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -29. -34. -40. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -0. 3. 6. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 5. 17. 15. 6. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 10. 9. 6. 2. -2. 5. -3. -19. -33. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 52.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 16.2% 11.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.1% 16.5% 10.4% 8.6% 4.9% 4.8% 3.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 20.4% 11.8% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.4% 14.9% 8.8% 6.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 22( 49) 24( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 12( 17) 16( 31) 23( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 97 99 99 100 102 102 105 104 101 97 93 100 92 76 61 43 18HR AGO 95 94 96 96 97 99 99 102 101 98 94 90 97 89 73 58 40 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 92 94 94 97 96 93 89 85 92 84 68 53 35 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 88 88 91 90 87 83 79 86 78 62 47 29 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 78 81 80 77 73 69 76 68 52 37 19 IN 6HR 95 97 88 82 79 79 79 82 81 78 74 70 77 69 53 38 20 IN 12HR 95 97 99 90 84 80 80 83 82 79 75 71 78 70 54 39 21