* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 81 82 85 86 91 95 97 99 97 98 92 83 76 72 63 V (KT) LAND 80 80 81 82 85 86 91 95 97 99 97 98 92 83 76 72 63 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 78 80 86 92 95 96 96 94 91 86 77 67 54 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 11 12 16 11 10 0 4 3 11 30 54 57 56 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 2 2 -1 2 -3 4 -2 -1 -2 4 -1 2 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 256 261 254 251 225 195 182 72 331 253 221 223 223 220 211 217 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.0 28.2 29.0 29.4 29.0 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.0 25.1 20.3 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 128 129 137 140 152 159 152 141 137 134 136 139 108 83 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 119 120 127 129 140 145 136 123 118 116 117 118 94 75 69 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.7 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.4 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 48 45 44 43 44 43 44 44 49 56 63 57 52 45 48 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 32 32 34 37 40 41 41 42 41 42 41 40 41 47 48 850 MB ENV VOR 112 102 101 95 94 75 76 63 54 73 117 133 115 96 42 77 160 200 MB DIV 110 100 83 65 53 43 32 -4 7 7 16 39 43 46 56 107 45 700-850 TADV 5 8 12 13 10 12 9 16 -1 3 -1 3 10 10 8 -17 -13 LAND (KM) 1286 1271 1267 1270 1226 1124 1055 1026 1055 1140 1279 1131 954 724 457 255 139 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.2 26.8 28.3 30.0 32.0 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.0 52.7 53.4 54.2 55.6 57.2 59.1 61.0 62.7 63.8 64.3 64.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 11 13 15 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 28 34 41 37 27 34 39 22 16 18 20 40 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -0. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. -1. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 6. 4. 1. 3. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 15. 17. 19. 17. 18. 12. 3. -4. -8. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.4 51.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.65 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 551.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.14 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.8% 10.5% 7.5% 7.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 12.4% 6.9% 7.1% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 5.8% 2.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 10.3% 6.4% 5.0% 4.0% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 10( 23) 10( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 81 82 85 86 91 95 97 99 97 98 92 83 76 72 63 18HR AGO 80 79 80 81 84 85 90 94 96 98 96 97 91 82 75 71 62 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 80 81 86 90 92 94 92 93 87 78 71 67 58 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 73 74 79 83 85 87 85 86 80 71 64 60 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT