* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 87 87 87 88 90 93 97 97 96 97 94 88 80 66 57 V (KT) LAND 85 87 87 87 87 88 90 93 97 97 96 97 94 88 80 66 49 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 85 85 88 91 94 97 96 92 91 88 81 67 48 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 17 18 12 15 14 16 2 6 2 6 24 52 68 62 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 -3 2 1 -3 2 1 1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 268 257 264 264 251 227 200 184 167 284 294 275 253 274 271 270 251 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.5 28.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.7 28.0 27.8 25.8 19.8 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 127 130 138 150 154 156 149 135 133 138 136 114 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 120 118 121 128 137 140 141 131 117 114 119 116 98 73 69 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.4 -50.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 44 44 43 40 42 44 44 52 58 54 46 47 48 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 31 32 34 37 38 40 40 39 41 41 41 42 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 100 100 91 92 83 67 72 60 51 47 80 99 83 26 -107 -124 -60 200 MB DIV 66 78 74 79 46 35 72 -13 14 -10 32 0 12 5 33 35 29 700-850 TADV 8 4 12 16 12 13 13 14 3 -1 -3 1 7 19 25 24 23 LAND (KM) 1326 1315 1300 1298 1305 1183 1090 1045 1049 1111 1253 1195 1037 781 485 234 -33 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 21.5 23.0 24.6 26.2 27.8 29.5 31.2 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.1 51.9 52.6 53.4 54.9 56.5 58.2 60.1 62.0 63.3 64.0 64.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 11 10 10 13 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 20 25 35 39 30 27 35 33 15 14 28 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 11. 12. 9. 3. -5. -19. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.1 50.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 565.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.5% 10.4% 7.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 13.1% 9.2% 9.3% 3.7% 4.5% 2.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 11.4% 5.0% 5.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 11.2% 8.3% 6.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 10( 27) 11( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 2( 6) 6( 12) 6( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 87 87 87 88 90 93 97 97 96 97 94 88 80 66 49 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 84 85 87 90 94 94 93 94 91 85 77 63 46 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 81 82 84 87 91 91 90 91 88 82 74 60 43 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 76 78 81 85 85 84 85 82 76 68 54 37 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 67 69 72 76 76 75 76 73 67 59 45 28 IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 68 70 73 77 77 76 77 74 68 60 46 29 IN 12HR 85 87 87 78 72 68 70 73 77 77 76 77 74 68 60 46 29