* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 79 81 83 82 85 86 89 91 95 95 93 92 89 82 71 V (KT) LAND 70 76 79 81 83 82 85 86 89 91 95 95 93 92 89 82 71 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 81 81 84 88 91 92 91 91 93 92 90 87 78 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 8 6 11 13 15 16 12 6 4 1 11 30 48 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 5 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 8 0 0 SHEAR DIR 207 235 285 296 267 255 230 232 200 205 203 246 355 218 216 224 221 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 139 144 148 148 148 155 149 147 147 132 134 134 132 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 129 131 136 139 138 136 142 134 130 129 115 117 118 115 86 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -50.3 -50.1 -51.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 7 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 55 54 54 50 45 43 41 40 39 39 41 46 57 62 58 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 26 27 26 29 30 32 34 36 37 36 37 38 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 81 80 89 70 58 47 48 32 28 31 87 107 91 35 -31 200 MB DIV 134 100 72 63 63 28 28 42 39 4 18 15 30 38 57 62 80 700-850 TADV 0 5 6 4 2 14 12 8 8 14 2 4 -2 9 24 42 34 LAND (KM) 1184 1220 1254 1294 1334 1298 1296 1196 1108 1069 1086 1162 1324 1364 1059 726 362 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.7 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 27.6 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 48.6 49.3 49.9 50.6 52.1 53.5 54.8 56.3 57.8 59.2 60.4 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 14 18 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 26 24 26 37 47 45 34 25 29 30 12 15 11 22 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 6. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 15. 16. 19. 21. 25. 25. 23. 22. 19. 12. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.7 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.85 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 42.6% 34.2% 23.4% 16.0% 19.3% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 21.1% 12.3% 10.5% 3.5% 9.9% 8.6% 2.8% Bayesian: 45.7% 50.5% 42.7% 25.6% 9.6% 14.7% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 27.4% 38.1% 29.7% 19.8% 9.7% 14.7% 9.5% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 9( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 3( 8) 4( 12) 2( 13) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 76 79 81 83 82 85 86 89 91 95 95 93 92 89 82 71 18HR AGO 70 69 72 74 76 75 78 79 82 84 88 88 86 85 82 75 64 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 70 69 72 73 76 78 82 82 80 79 76 69 58 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 61 64 65 68 70 74 74 72 71 68 61 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT