* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 73 70 67 61 52 44 34 26 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 73 70 67 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 72 70 67 45 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 24 28 26 31 33 52 57 67 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 2 0 1 -1 -10 -8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 275 261 265 264 244 247 239 236 243 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 153 156 164 162 157 157 154 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 124 125 128 135 135 130 130 127 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 3 1 4 1 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 62 65 69 67 61 51 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 24 24 21 17 14 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 32 31 -12 -14 27 25 69 56 41 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 71 84 53 42 69 68 65 27 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 15 14 15 14 4 -13 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 93 63 33 4 -50 -168 -268 -255 -122 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.3 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.0 33.2 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.1 88.2 88.2 88.2 87.7 86.6 85.2 83.6 81.9 80.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 31 28 30 34 8 4 4 4 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -19. -25. -31. -35. -37. -37. -38. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -26. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -5. -8. -14. -23. -31. -41. -49. -59. -59. -60. -60. -62. -63. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.1 88.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.4% 7.8% 6.2% 5.6% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 73 70 67 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 71 68 46 34 30 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 43 31 27 25 25 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 40 28 24 22 22 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT