* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 68 76 83 87 89 95 98 98 96 98 97 96 94 88 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 68 76 83 87 89 95 98 98 96 98 97 96 94 88 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 65 71 80 86 90 94 99 97 94 95 94 95 92 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 1 3 11 8 9 12 12 8 11 12 15 14 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 6 4 4 4 5 0 2 0 0 -4 -4 -3 0 14 SHEAR DIR 29 27 37 84 35 320 304 287 267 250 254 278 305 316 290 263 243 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.3 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 150 148 145 144 145 151 153 145 148 148 149 157 141 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 146 146 144 139 136 136 141 141 130 132 131 131 137 122 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 56 53 52 52 50 48 48 50 51 52 54 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 31 31 32 30 30 30 33 36 37 37 40 41 41 42 42 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 78 69 66 75 71 62 60 52 56 48 45 50 95 93 99 200 MB DIV 108 137 155 145 102 30 47 50 43 16 41 -16 13 24 24 32 61 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -5 0 -1 0 2 9 9 7 14 12 -3 5 8 15 36 LAND (KM) 1246 1211 1175 1165 1166 1204 1244 1213 1229 1132 1052 1009 1016 1061 1172 1336 1332 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.8 17.0 18.3 19.7 21.1 22.4 23.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.6 46.6 47.5 48.4 50.0 51.4 52.8 54.1 55.3 56.6 57.8 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 36 38 36 27 26 48 52 48 30 25 31 32 32 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 23. 31. 38. 42. 44. 50. 53. 53. 51. 53. 52. 51. 49. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.73 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 52.9% 38.5% 21.4% 14.0% 32.4% 37.7% 52.1% Logistic: 16.1% 48.7% 31.7% 15.9% 5.4% 15.5% 15.0% 9.3% Bayesian: 10.5% 17.8% 23.2% 4.9% 3.1% 19.8% 33.3% 5.0% Consensus: 13.0% 39.8% 31.1% 14.0% 7.5% 22.6% 28.7% 22.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 9( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 61 68 76 83 87 89 95 98 98 96 98 97 96 94 88 18HR AGO 45 44 53 60 68 75 79 81 87 90 90 88 90 89 88 86 80 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 56 63 67 69 75 78 78 76 78 77 76 74 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 43 50 54 56 62 65 65 63 65 64 63 61 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT