* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 65 67 63 57 49 39 28 25 24 22 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 65 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 66 65 43 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 18 23 21 25 26 36 41 58 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 3 1 -1 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 255 244 256 262 251 258 246 245 237 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 154 154 156 164 166 160 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 128 127 127 129 135 136 131 130 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 5 3 5 1 3 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 62 64 69 71 72 64 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 24 21 17 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 37 57 25 16 35 -5 14 28 31 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 36 44 38 49 79 51 79 28 37 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 10 6 12 19 12 -3 -11 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 212 175 120 85 59 16 -48 -148 -259 -335 -307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 30.2 31.1 32.0 32.7 33.2 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.9 87.4 87.9 88.2 88.5 88.6 88.3 87.5 86.4 85.1 83.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 54 46 37 30 35 8 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -27. -30. -32. -35. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. -1. -6. -11. -17. -21. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 8. 2. -6. -16. -27. -30. -31. -33. -35. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.4 86.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.35 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.2% 10.3% 7.8% 6.9% 9.1% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 15.2% 7.4% 6.1% 3.2% 11.4% 7.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 10.8% 6.0% 4.7% 3.4% 6.8% 5.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 64 65 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 61 63 39 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 55 57 33 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT