* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 93 94 95 89 79 66 55 46 36 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 90 93 94 95 89 79 66 55 46 36 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 91 96 98 98 93 75 53 41 34 33 36 37 35 30 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 14 21 29 46 57 54 34 18 16 29 43 51 54 47 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 5 2 6 -2 -4 0 1 1 0 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 232 219 206 209 208 215 214 226 233 255 285 321 347 1 16 25 33 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 19.7 21.3 21.5 19.6 21.6 23.1 22.9 23.8 25.1 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 138 138 136 138 83 87 85 76 84 93 91 96 105 112 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 126 119 120 121 123 77 77 74 68 73 79 79 82 89 95 100 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 34 37 40 40 38 38 32 27 30 35 34 31 28 31 41 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 35 36 39 40 40 39 36 31 26 24 20 17 13 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 38 34 35 43 45 2 3 -27 -43 -7 8 15 12 23 26 200 MB DIV 43 65 60 69 112 97 53 36 3 -3 2 -83 -71 -35 -21 -24 -17 700-850 TADV 3 3 -1 3 -1 -17 -66 -44 -21 -2 0 -12 -7 1 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1040 990 918 866 818 785 588 794 1022 1167 1313 1487 1642 1795 1935 2066 2051 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.0 35.1 36.2 37.3 39.7 42.2 44.3 45.3 45.4 44.5 42.6 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 64.3 63.6 62.0 60.3 55.2 49.2 43.5 39.9 37.9 36.4 35.2 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 17 21 25 25 18 10 7 8 11 10 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 20 19 20 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -16. -23. -31. -37. -42. -47. -51. -53. -55. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -24. -21. -19. -19. -22. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -6. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 10. 4. -6. -19. -30. -39. -49. -57. -68. -78. -88. -96.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.9 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 785.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.11 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.7% 9.4% 6.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 6.9% 5.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 6.9% 4.9% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 14( 23) 17( 36) 11( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 90 93 94 95 89 79 66 55 46 36 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 87 88 89 83 73 60 49 40 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 83 77 67 54 43 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 76 70 60 47 36 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 50 37 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 90 81 75 72 68 58 45 34 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 90 93 84 78 74 64 51 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS