* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 69 75 77 83 84 85 83 83 82 82 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 69 75 77 83 84 85 83 83 82 82 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 50 58 61 63 64 66 68 71 73 73 75 74 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 3 3 1 8 12 17 11 14 12 17 20 20 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 0 10 5 4 1 3 3 2 2 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 23 331 302 282 330 155 209 283 257 255 251 249 269 289 298 297 305 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 136 143 147 150 145 142 143 143 141 142 143 144 141 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 130 135 141 144 144 138 133 134 133 130 128 127 126 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 61 60 57 54 51 49 48 45 47 50 50 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 27 30 28 28 29 28 32 33 34 34 37 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 92 73 51 52 52 58 46 62 60 46 44 30 25 3 -2 10 48 200 MB DIV 88 78 78 81 90 112 71 27 24 54 20 27 -17 9 -9 12 2 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -8 -12 -13 0 1 3 8 11 9 11 6 5 3 5 7 LAND (KM) 1621 1535 1460 1399 1339 1277 1280 1331 1374 1374 1350 1262 1220 1213 1239 1295 1373 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.8 18.1 19.5 20.9 22.4 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.1 42.5 43.6 44.8 46.6 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.9 53.1 54.4 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 15 22 43 41 25 24 30 39 47 30 24 20 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 7. 5. 10. 10. 11. 10. 12. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 35. 40. 42. 48. 49. 50. 48. 48. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 39.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.94 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.76 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 18.0% 11.3% 6.7% 5.9% 10.3% 25.9% 49.6% Logistic: 4.7% 20.3% 12.0% 1.7% 0.4% 2.7% 4.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 2.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 16.0% 3.5% Consensus: 4.0% 13.2% 8.4% 2.8% 2.1% 5.1% 15.3% 19.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 51 59 64 69 75 77 83 84 85 83 83 82 82 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 47 55 60 65 71 73 79 80 81 79 79 78 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 48 53 58 64 66 72 73 74 72 72 71 71 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 43 48 54 56 62 63 64 62 62 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT