* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 90 94 99 101 97 88 77 70 56 45 37 29 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 90 94 99 101 97 88 77 70 56 45 37 29 20 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 90 95 102 100 92 71 58 47 40 37 37 38 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 5 6 15 30 39 49 45 32 18 17 18 31 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 9 3 4 7 -4 0 3 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 244 323 355 217 211 206 202 212 214 238 249 260 263 295 310 331 344 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.5 24.1 24.9 23.8 21.3 22.6 23.1 22.5 22.8 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 139 139 142 136 138 134 101 106 97 83 88 90 87 89 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 118 118 121 119 122 117 88 89 82 72 74 76 74 76 77 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -54.3 -55.2 -55.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 36 35 36 37 39 42 41 36 33 32 32 33 34 36 36 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 32 35 40 40 41 38 38 32 27 24 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 43 26 9 6 7 30 37 53 26 15 -1 -38 -49 -61 -18 -15 -2 200 MB DIV -12 -23 10 42 56 73 120 85 65 25 15 -1 -5 -26 -38 -84 -39 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 4 4 -2 -22 -34 -23 -10 -8 0 -10 -16 -15 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 1345 1256 1149 1115 1021 905 854 736 690 820 1007 1209 1365 1474 1590 1693 1809 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.0 31.8 32.8 33.8 35.9 38.0 40.1 41.9 43.1 43.8 43.8 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.4 64.2 64.1 64.0 61.7 57.6 52.3 47.6 44.0 40.9 38.2 36.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 10 12 17 21 22 17 13 11 8 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 18 24 26 17 19 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 11. 12. 8. 7. -2. -9. -14. -17. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 26. 22. 13. 2. -5. -19. -30. -38. -46. -55. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 62.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.92 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 728.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.17 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 19.8% 15.2% 11.6% 8.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 15.0% 16.5% 5.8% 0.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 0.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 11.8% 11.3% 6.3% 3.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 16( 28) 21( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 90 94 99 101 97 88 77 70 56 45 37 29 20 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 84 88 93 95 91 82 71 64 50 39 31 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 76 80 85 87 83 74 63 56 42 31 23 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 74 76 72 63 52 45 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 68 64 55 44 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS