* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 62 66 71 73 74 69 63 56 46 38 31 26 26 25 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 62 66 70 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 67 71 68 57 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 15 16 21 20 24 27 33 41 57 59 61 59 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 -5 -6 -8 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 293 263 261 253 228 251 240 258 241 241 238 242 243 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 160 159 159 158 165 169 169 168 167 162 156 147 147 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 137 135 132 137 146 142 138 138 135 130 122 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 7 2 5 1 3 0 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 63 63 65 64 69 72 73 69 66 63 63 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 20 21 21 19 16 14 12 10 8 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 28 49 29 29 68 26 13 -33 -12 -8 22 -5 -9 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 45 65 39 30 51 41 55 40 76 46 46 36 54 48 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 2 -6 3 4 12 17 11 0 -13 -19 -10 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 224 209 201 114 2 -25 -38 -142 -216 -286 -434 -343 -264 -162 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.1 29.8 30.7 31.6 32.5 33.3 34.2 34.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.5 86.4 87.3 88.1 89.3 90.0 90.1 89.8 89.0 87.7 85.7 83.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 30 34 58 63 30 24 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -17. -24. -33. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 16. 21. 23. 24. 19. 13. 6. -4. -12. -19. -24. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.3 84.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.0% 10.9% 7.7% 6.5% 9.5% 12.1% 10.6% Logistic: 3.3% 19.3% 9.0% 5.6% 2.0% 13.5% 14.5% 8.5% Bayesian: 9.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 12.9% 6.8% 4.5% 2.9% 7.7% 8.9% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 62 66 70 52 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 56 60 64 46 34 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 57 39 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 48 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT