* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY AL202020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 44 50 61 73 80 81 85 87 88 89 87 89 87 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 44 50 61 73 80 81 85 87 88 89 87 89 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 39 42 47 55 64 69 70 69 70 70 69 69 71 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 8 9 12 8 3 4 5 6 9 16 15 14 14 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 5 4 -2 2 3 7 5 0 2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 351 10 29 25 22 31 260 164 198 243 239 232 243 233 258 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 140 141 140 136 137 137 139 134 133 131 135 135 139 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 137 138 138 133 133 132 133 126 124 121 123 121 124 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 76 72 69 69 68 64 62 63 61 56 52 46 43 42 42 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 21 22 22 25 29 29 27 28 30 31 32 31 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 110 132 134 119 115 82 47 50 51 59 75 65 48 34 22 5 -14 200 MB DIV 45 79 106 114 113 80 96 78 101 103 76 44 27 20 14 -1 35 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -15 -23 -26 -5 -10 -1 1 3 3 8 11 9 11 13 5 LAND (KM) 1745 1742 1744 1751 1765 1629 1504 1452 1444 1506 1596 1644 1618 1541 1475 1434 1417 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.0 14.9 16.0 17.4 18.9 20.5 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.9 35.7 36.6 37.6 39.8 42.0 43.9 45.5 46.9 48.2 49.4 50.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 12 22 21 15 14 21 23 27 37 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 8. 13. 14. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 11. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 20. 31. 43. 50. 51. 55. 57. 58. 59. 57. 59. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 34.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 18.2% 11.2% 6.7% 5.9% 9.4% 15.0% 44.8% Logistic: 4.4% 18.6% 10.5% 2.2% 0.5% 3.3% 5.2% 8.9% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 22.1% 21.7% Consensus: 3.7% 12.7% 7.7% 3.0% 2.2% 4.6% 14.1% 25.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TWENTY 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 40 44 50 61 73 80 81 85 87 88 89 87 89 87 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 41 47 58 70 77 78 82 84 85 86 84 86 84 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 41 52 64 71 72 76 78 79 80 78 80 78 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 41 53 60 61 65 67 68 69 67 69 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT