* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 55 63 70 74 71 66 59 53 42 35 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 55 63 70 74 71 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 60 66 67 65 49 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 14 9 15 14 23 18 23 23 38 47 53 52 48 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -4 -2 -6 -2 -4 2 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 320 301 313 317 299 269 249 261 257 262 245 244 243 246 250 268 280 SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 165 163 161 158 155 155 160 166 168 166 165 165 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 156 153 145 142 138 132 129 127 131 135 136 132 131 131 130 131 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 6 3 5 4 7 3 5 2 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 59 62 61 64 61 67 68 74 64 60 52 52 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 16 17 20 21 19 17 13 11 8 7 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 0 -7 14 6 40 11 12 -30 2 -3 18 -28 -24 -71 -60 200 MB DIV 8 21 20 6 26 42 29 31 44 51 64 32 30 21 -6 -16 -39 700-850 TADV -4 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 11 12 21 10 6 0 0 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 29 66 118 171 228 228 168 86 55 33 -20 -90 -130 -140 -153 -151 -152 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.2 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.4 83.3 84.1 85.0 86.4 87.5 88.2 88.7 89.1 89.2 89.1 88.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 78 56 38 34 34 61 40 30 35 40 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -7. -14. -22. -28. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 4. 0. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 39. 36. 31. 24. 18. 7. -0. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 81.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.4% 10.4% 7.1% 6.3% 9.1% 11.9% 13.4% Logistic: 9.8% 40.0% 25.2% 15.5% 8.7% 31.5% 49.9% 51.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 12.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 6.0% 23.0% 12.8% 7.8% 5.1% 13.8% 20.8% 21.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 48 55 63 70 74 71 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 44 51 59 66 70 67 49 33 26 24 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 45 53 60 64 61 43 27 20 18 17 17 17 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 44 51 55 52 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT