* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 30 30 34 38 40 40 42 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 30 30 34 38 40 40 42 42 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 26 25 23 22 22 24 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 15 19 18 19 27 22 20 10 7 10 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 5 4 3 1 -3 0 -5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 285 294 289 283 299 307 323 343 311 283 256 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 128 129 130 128 129 136 138 137 140 139 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 114 112 111 108 109 116 120 120 123 123 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 50 52 51 47 43 38 36 36 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 -42 -68 -93 -104 -122 -130 -124 -104 -67 -40 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -7 7 7 17 -24 -33 -44 -21 -13 6 3 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 6 4 4 3 -1 -4 -2 -4 -5 -9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2214 2162 2116 2096 2079 2044 2004 1908 1766 1611 1437 1260 1085 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.7 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.3 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.9 46.7 47.1 47.6 48.3 48.8 49.6 50.8 52.2 53.8 55.5 57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 7 6 3 3 5 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 14 14 13 13 16 32 34 21 32 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.5% 6.6% 4.6% 3.8% 5.6% 4.4% 5.1% Logistic: 1.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 30 30 34 38 40 40 42 42 43 44 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 29 30 30 30 34 38 40 40 42 42 43 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 26 27 27 27 31 35 37 37 39 39 40 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 21 21 21 25 29 31 31 33 33 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT