* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 64 66 72 80 88 93 98 99 96 91 83 71 62 52 38 V (KT) LAND 60 61 64 66 72 80 88 93 98 99 96 91 83 71 62 52 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 66 69 79 88 94 95 91 82 72 57 48 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 13 6 1 5 7 10 22 34 35 32 25 27 22 36 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 1 -3 -6 -7 0 2 2 -2 2 4 2 6 9 23 SHEAR DIR 182 180 176 191 179 316 247 222 191 215 202 203 210 222 213 214 212 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 20.5 20.7 18.1 15.7 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 154 151 146 139 139 140 135 136 136 130 83 84 76 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 137 133 128 119 117 118 116 115 115 110 75 75 70 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -51.3 -52.0 -53.3 -52.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 4 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 40 38 39 39 37 40 44 45 39 42 43 46 45 42 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 26 29 32 34 34 38 40 41 40 41 37 36 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 63 50 47 34 36 22 17 34 43 17 40 19 5 1 40 66 60 200 MB DIV 10 16 28 0 -13 -7 29 46 85 110 89 72 55 46 89 72 44 700-850 TADV 16 14 13 9 6 -1 4 2 -8 -8 -21 -3 13 29 31 -43 -113 LAND (KM) 1352 1326 1315 1313 1326 1239 1079 977 914 900 861 692 611 699 847 1019 1236 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.7 31.0 32.6 34.3 35.9 37.4 39.0 40.6 42.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.9 59.1 60.3 61.5 63.6 64.6 63.9 61.4 58.3 54.9 51.4 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 9 11 14 15 16 16 17 16 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 29 25 21 20 23 23 15 20 26 32 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 15. 16. 14. 14. 8. 5. 3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 33. 38. 39. 36. 31. 23. 11. 2. -8. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.1 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.0% 10.2% 7.4% 6.7% 9.9% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.1% 6.8% 2.6% 0.6% 2.7% 1.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.7% 5.7% 3.3% 2.4% 4.2% 4.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 64 66 72 80 88 93 98 99 96 91 83 71 62 52 38 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 70 78 86 91 96 97 94 89 81 69 60 50 36 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 64 72 80 85 90 91 88 83 75 63 54 44 30 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 64 72 77 82 83 80 75 67 55 46 36 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT