* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 72 80 86 93 99 100 98 93 85 76 65 56 38 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 72 80 86 93 99 100 98 93 85 76 65 56 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 72 79 87 94 97 93 86 75 65 54 46 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 15 10 6 3 3 7 15 28 36 38 29 29 30 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 -4 0 5 1 0 1 2 5 17 23 SHEAR DIR 190 182 174 177 236 303 316 212 213 196 217 198 194 189 203 214 221 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 17.6 16.5 15.4 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 151 154 152 149 144 137 140 136 135 135 133 131 75 73 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 138 135 131 126 116 117 114 114 114 112 110 70 69 68 66 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.8 -51.6 -52.1 -50.3 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 7 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 40 40 39 38 37 41 46 40 40 44 45 43 40 23 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 29 27 31 32 34 37 39 42 42 40 40 37 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR 67 61 50 44 33 28 7 14 43 38 31 30 7 22 109 93 -20 200 MB DIV 4 13 11 16 0 7 12 34 51 101 112 104 83 90 97 56 23 700-850 TADV 18 15 11 11 8 1 -1 4 0 -12 -10 -12 -6 -17 25 -167 86 LAND (KM) 1382 1352 1338 1328 1332 1358 1141 1033 940 866 839 783 602 461 524 699 972 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.2 30.3 31.6 33.1 34.8 36.4 37.9 39.5 41.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.6 57.8 59.0 60.1 62.5 64.4 64.9 63.7 61.3 58.6 55.6 52.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 8 8 11 13 14 14 16 17 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 28 27 24 24 17 25 18 16 20 17 28 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 16. 13. 11. 6. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 20. 26. 33. 39. 40. 38. 33. 25. 16. 5. -4. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.4 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 17.7% 11.2% 8.2% 7.5% 10.3% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 11.6% 10.9% 4.3% 1.2% 6.3% 2.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.7% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 10.0% 8.2% 4.2% 2.9% 5.8% 5.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 7( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 70 72 80 86 93 99 100 98 93 85 76 65 56 38 18HR AGO 60 59 62 66 68 76 82 89 95 96 94 89 81 72 61 52 34 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 62 70 76 83 89 90 88 83 75 66 55 46 28 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 60 66 73 79 80 78 73 65 56 45 36 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT