* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 94 101 99 98 91 85 75 64 48 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 94 101 99 98 91 85 75 64 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 59 65 74 83 92 93 88 79 70 64 54 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 28 23 18 12 1 3 4 7 22 37 36 28 24 28 41 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -2 1 -2 -5 -5 -2 2 3 -4 -1 0 7 19 18 SHEAR DIR 201 193 186 185 192 45 319 310 217 200 213 209 206 204 199 207 218 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 24.5 18.4 15.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 153 158 158 152 142 140 141 135 135 133 128 104 78 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 137 141 140 134 122 117 118 113 114 112 108 89 72 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.4 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 5 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 41 39 36 39 43 45 38 43 47 50 41 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 40 40 42 41 43 43 41 37 850 MB ENV VOR 90 76 64 57 45 44 21 11 35 49 27 23 -1 -8 37 121 23 200 MB DIV 11 0 -4 9 15 0 -9 24 51 78 84 69 86 121 120 75 33 700-850 TADV 21 14 14 13 14 3 1 2 2 -6 -3 -15 5 8 0 -59 -123 LAND (KM) 1416 1376 1351 1333 1328 1330 1267 1087 1003 919 828 795 724 533 461 605 888 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.6 30.8 32.2 33.8 35.5 37.1 38.6 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.4 56.5 57.6 58.7 61.1 63.4 64.7 64.4 62.8 60.5 57.5 54.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 8 9 11 13 14 15 16 19 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 40 30 25 30 29 23 22 24 25 14 16 19 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 15. 17. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 5. 12. 22. 30. 39. 46. 44. 43. 36. 30. 20. 9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 54.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.2% 6.7% 4.9% 4.1% 7.7% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.7% 3.2% 2.0% 1.5% 3.2% 4.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 56 57 60 67 77 85 94 101 99 98 91 85 75 64 48 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 59 66 76 84 93 100 98 97 90 84 74 63 47 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 55 62 72 80 89 96 94 93 86 80 70 59 43 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 65 73 82 89 87 86 79 73 63 52 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT