* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 56 55 55 53 52 48 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 56 55 55 53 52 48 44 43 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 61 64 65 64 62 59 54 50 48 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 6 1 4 3 7 15 22 28 22 19 18 16 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 3 3 5 8 6 6 4 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 107 101 96 103 257 309 301 300 297 318 341 29 37 76 80 116 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.0 26.7 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 120 121 114 121 129 134 136 140 141 138 136 133 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 108 111 112 106 111 117 119 118 119 118 115 113 109 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 59 56 53 51 54 58 56 51 47 41 40 35 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 60 52 61 31 -7 -20 -39 -68 -81 -107 -120 -129 -123 -125 -60 200 MB DIV 16 15 -6 -20 -14 -17 -4 -19 9 -17 -29 -37 -16 -31 -5 -7 8 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 0 -1 2 -1 11 7 12 5 -2 -1 -6 0 6 11 LAND (KM) 2031 2130 2217 2181 2142 2093 2122 2105 2021 1989 1975 1980 1914 1821 1720 1632 1533 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.1 21.1 22.5 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.0 28.8 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.3 40.3 42.5 44.6 46.3 47.7 48.7 49.5 50.0 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 5 3 4 0 10 19 15 19 23 24 21 15 12 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -12. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 3. -1. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 36.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.3% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 36.3% 24.9% 7.4% 4.5% 18.3% 15.0% 13.1% Bayesian: 4.4% 7.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% Consensus: 7.2% 20.3% 12.6% 5.2% 1.6% 6.6% 9.9% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 52 54 56 57 56 55 55 53 52 48 44 43 43 43 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 50 52 53 52 51 51 49 48 44 40 39 39 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 48 47 46 46 44 43 39 35 34 34 34 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 40 39 38 38 36 35 31 27 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT