* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 38 36 37 37 42 50 61 68 72 75 72 73 69 70 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 38 36 37 37 42 50 61 68 72 75 72 73 69 70 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 36 34 34 36 41 50 61 73 80 82 82 80 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 39 40 35 30 30 17 16 8 3 4 2 9 17 21 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 0 6 0 4 -1 -3 -3 -2 3 2 12 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 217 220 223 224 221 211 200 207 198 186 2 285 240 239 234 241 229 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 134 135 135 145 152 159 161 155 146 141 139 136 132 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 122 123 123 132 137 142 143 135 123 117 117 115 111 108 105 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 9 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 55 54 54 53 51 51 48 52 52 59 61 60 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 21 20 21 20 21 22 25 28 31 34 34 36 36 41 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 109 102 104 101 102 101 78 60 47 33 28 22 44 43 78 75 79 200 MB DIV 19 7 3 13 35 4 7 24 20 6 17 19 63 74 99 114 93 700-850 TADV 15 11 8 6 5 10 11 10 8 2 0 0 -3 6 5 10 1 LAND (KM) 1757 1701 1624 1538 1455 1326 1261 1235 1236 1274 1300 1196 1159 1132 1115 1102 1056 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.7 25.2 26.6 28.0 29.3 30.5 31.7 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.7 50.6 51.6 52.5 54.3 56.0 57.7 59.7 61.8 63.2 63.7 62.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 7 6 9 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 21 28 31 34 31 31 33 26 25 21 29 16 13 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -0. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 11. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -3. 5. 16. 23. 27. 30. 27. 28. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 48.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 38 36 37 37 42 50 61 68 72 75 72 73 69 70 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 38 39 39 44 52 63 70 74 77 74 75 71 72 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 39 39 44 52 63 70 74 77 74 75 71 72 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 34 34 39 47 58 65 69 72 69 70 66 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT