* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 41 45 49 51 52 48 48 48 46 45 46 46 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 41 45 49 51 52 48 48 48 46 45 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 44 48 52 53 52 50 48 44 43 43 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 12 6 0 9 14 24 28 32 22 19 13 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 0 3 4 6 8 9 3 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 97 91 98 112 111 104 298 299 306 314 306 320 333 15 16 19 53 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.1 26.5 27.2 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 115 115 118 122 115 119 126 132 133 132 135 138 141 140 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 107 107 109 113 106 108 113 116 114 111 113 115 118 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.1 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 65 64 59 57 56 61 62 61 59 53 48 47 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 12 14 13 13 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 92 84 64 64 63 70 37 -12 -41 -81 -83 -101 -117 -117 -112 -120 -121 200 MB DIV 16 14 21 21 3 -5 -4 -18 8 14 -15 -23 -51 -16 -31 -28 -26 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 3 2 1 2 2 18 17 28 15 9 3 -4 -4 5 LAND (KM) 1828 1936 2035 2129 2199 2132 2116 2164 2225 2206 2189 2166 2097 2052 2004 1948 1906 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.9 21.1 22.6 24.3 25.9 27.1 27.8 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.3 36.3 37.2 38.2 40.2 42.1 43.9 45.2 45.9 46.6 47.1 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 8 6 4 4 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 2 5 4 0 4 16 17 18 15 15 18 24 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -12. -11. -13. -13. -12. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 11. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.1 34.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.88 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.7% 9.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 25.4% 13.1% 3.2% 2.8% 19.1% 22.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 1.8% 0.7% Consensus: 4.8% 14.1% 7.7% 3.1% 0.9% 6.7% 7.9% 4.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 41 45 49 51 52 48 48 48 46 45 46 46 44 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 42 46 48 49 45 45 45 43 42 43 43 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 42 44 45 41 41 41 39 38 39 39 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 36 37 33 33 33 31 30 31 31 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT