* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 43 39 36 33 30 28 27 27 27 28 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 24 25 32 37 37 30 28 25 27 19 24 19 26 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 5 5 -1 2 2 6 1 5 2 3 1 3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 232 225 217 222 221 219 220 200 202 191 182 173 153 175 171 203 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.9 28.0 28.4 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.1 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 124 124 125 123 126 134 135 142 153 162 160 163 152 149 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 113 114 112 114 120 121 127 139 145 141 141 130 126 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 64 61 62 60 60 54 55 56 52 51 49 48 43 42 42 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 23 21 18 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 112 105 107 104 108 98 101 108 104 97 85 60 48 25 18 28 52 200 MB DIV 84 69 52 69 31 -7 9 32 19 2 31 16 25 10 19 49 14 700-850 TADV 6 9 10 3 0 3 -1 2 1 4 7 10 7 12 6 2 0 LAND (KM) 1783 1776 1773 1756 1741 1628 1535 1428 1331 1262 1194 1165 1165 1192 1258 1291 1140 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.2 22.1 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.3 46.1 47.0 47.9 49.6 51.1 52.4 53.6 54.7 56.2 57.9 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 7 8 17 38 34 33 34 33 37 39 24 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -22. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -17. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. -15. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.9% 5.5% 4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 18HR AGO 50 49 48 46 44 39 34 33 33 31 30 31 31 32 32 35 37 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 42 37 32 31 31 29 28 29 29 30 30 33 35 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 28 27 27 25 24 25 25 26 26 29 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT