* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 43 49 55 61 63 62 62 61 57 59 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 43 49 55 61 63 62 62 61 57 59 56 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 42 48 54 60 63 63 61 59 56 54 50 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 2 3 6 9 9 4 10 13 23 25 37 33 40 47 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 2 -2 -4 0 4 5 4 8 -1 -3 -4 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 355 56 150 110 74 74 93 157 271 277 280 279 289 278 290 287 334 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.0 27.2 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 130 126 128 123 123 122 118 114 127 133 134 134 133 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 125 121 123 118 116 114 109 105 115 118 116 113 112 113 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 66 63 68 65 65 61 59 56 51 49 42 31 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 17 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 111 124 121 123 122 118 90 78 62 66 45 11 -17 3 1 -50 -96 200 MB DIV 5 7 -2 10 10 24 0 0 4 31 10 31 0 24 -49 -50 -72 700-850 TADV 5 5 0 0 3 1 2 2 12 16 20 18 15 -7 -22 -24 -22 LAND (KM) 736 882 1027 1167 1307 1603 1878 2109 2285 2300 2404 2413 2213 2088 2024 2013 2008 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.4 24.3 26.4 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.6 26.9 28.2 29.5 32.2 34.8 37.2 39.2 41.0 42.4 43.5 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 10 12 6 6 8 1 0 13 17 14 16 14 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -10. -10. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 28. 27. 27. 26. 22. 24. 21. 23. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 24.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.98 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.5% 10.8% 7.4% 6.6% 9.5% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 12.9% 7.0% 1.7% 0.9% 4.9% 7.6% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% Consensus: 3.1% 11.3% 6.2% 3.1% 2.5% 4.9% 6.7% 3.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 43 49 55 61 63 62 62 61 57 59 56 57 56 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 40 46 52 58 60 59 59 58 54 56 53 54 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 42 48 54 56 55 55 54 50 52 49 50 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 40 46 48 47 47 46 42 44 41 42 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT