* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182020 09/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 42 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 58 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 42 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 58 58 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 52 56 60 62 63 63 62 62 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 8 9 14 10 9 2 7 7 11 14 29 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 5 -3 -1 -3 -2 2 7 2 3 2 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 360 311 308 308 69 130 77 76 108 162 196 212 235 252 280 268 277 SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.1 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 128 123 124 128 133 127 123 125 121 119 120 124 125 130 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 124 118 120 124 129 122 117 117 113 110 109 111 110 114 113 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 76 71 71 72 71 68 65 65 64 62 59 56 56 60 58 53 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 83 97 113 108 101 89 72 61 57 45 4 2 -33 -37 -30 200 MB DIV 36 27 15 5 22 5 -12 17 -18 12 36 34 14 18 10 3 -10 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 7 9 3 4 2 3 7 10 11 6 12 16 9 4 LAND (KM) 352 482 612 754 895 1197 1500 1782 2033 2226 2184 2196 2267 2342 2342 2204 2052 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.7 21.9 23.1 24.4 25.7 28.5 31.3 33.9 36.3 38.3 40.3 42.0 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 6 8 10 13 15 5 8 10 2 3 7 8 11 13 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -23. -23. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 28. 28. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 20.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 EIGHTEEN 09/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.97 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.58 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.6% 11.4% 7.6% 6.7% 9.8% 12.9% 15.7% Logistic: 7.5% 38.4% 24.1% 7.6% 4.5% 18.4% 26.3% 30.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 15.1% 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.7% 8.5% 9.2% Consensus: 5.2% 23.7% 12.9% 5.2% 3.8% 10.3% 15.9% 18.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 EIGHTEEN 09/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 39 42 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 58 58 57 57 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 39 44 49 52 54 55 57 58 55 55 54 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 38 43 46 48 49 51 52 49 49 48 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 35 38 40 41 43 44 41 41 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT