* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN AL172020 09/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 51 51 49 47 46 44 44 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 51 51 49 47 46 44 44 45 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 40 40 39 36 34 32 31 30 31 32 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 11 11 14 16 23 25 26 21 24 13 10 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 1 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 3 1 4 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 220 222 188 213 253 235 242 224 218 223 239 230 235 219 238 246 285 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 127 128 129 129 132 135 138 143 144 147 150 153 157 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 115 115 116 118 119 123 125 127 131 131 132 133 136 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 61 61 61 59 55 55 55 55 57 58 59 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 92 99 98 110 99 108 113 100 92 90 80 77 70 64 45 30 5 200 MB DIV 19 23 35 32 41 60 35 12 4 5 1 16 -7 36 13 25 2 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 2 6 9 -2 0 -2 0 -1 3 6 5 3 LAND (KM) 1780 1760 1740 1729 1719 1694 1668 1643 1589 1481 1348 1175 1055 982 970 992 1035 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 42.3 42.7 43.0 43.4 44.4 45.8 47.6 49.4 51.3 53.1 54.9 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 7 8 10 12 12 15 25 44 44 37 33 30 31 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 21. 21. 19. 17. 16. 14. 14. 15. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 42.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.81 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 10.5% 7.5% 4.9% 3.9% 7.1% 8.7% 11.4% Logistic: 1.9% 9.9% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 3.9% 7.5% 9.9% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.8% 6.9% 4.2% 2.2% 1.5% 3.7% 5.5% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 SEVENTEEN 09/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 42 48 51 51 49 47 46 44 44 45 48 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 46 49 49 47 45 44 42 42 43 46 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 41 44 44 42 40 39 37 37 38 41 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 36 36 34 32 31 29 29 30 33 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT