* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP152020 09/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 43 47 52 55 59 60 61 62 64 66 69 71 76 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 43 47 52 55 59 60 61 62 64 66 69 71 76 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 38 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 17 14 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 89 92 93 100 96 137 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 149 149 145 141 140 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 80 81 77 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 25 18 26 37 30 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 43 20 38 51 10 17 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 227 258 304 368 389 322 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.9 106.3 107.4 108.5 110.0 110.8 111.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 10 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 11 12 7 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 25. 26. 27. 29. 31. 34. 36. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 103.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.5% 14.4% 10.2% 7.3% 12.4% 12.9% 14.4% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 5.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.4% 4.3% 4.7% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152020 JULIO 09/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##