* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 61 65 70 75 77 81 82 84 88 91 95 96 99 100 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 61 65 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 63 67 63 39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 19 18 13 15 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 1 2 9 1 14 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.0 30.2 30.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 162 156 153 172 172 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 161 154 149 170 172 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 8 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 52 59 68 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 26 35 51 57 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 35 14 34 43 22 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 5 0 1 -3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 291 198 159 167 -32 -202 -110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.6 83.2 84.6 86.1 88.5 90.7 92.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 75 66 68 54 69 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 15. 20. 25. 27. 31. 32. 34. 38. 41. 45. 47. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 80.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 38.1% 24.7% 16.8% 10.4% 20.5% 26.3% 27.5% Logistic: 15.5% 31.7% 28.2% 23.6% 11.8% 25.1% 21.5% 34.6% Bayesian: 3.7% 18.3% 16.4% 0.9% 0.9% 19.7% 24.0% 57.0% Consensus: 11.6% 29.3% 23.1% 13.8% 7.7% 21.8% 23.9% 39.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 61 65 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 54 56 60 55 33 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 52 47 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT