* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 32 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 32 29 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 17 24 38 42 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 8 2 5 0 6 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 288 273 258 257 240 224 226 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 28.3 28.5 24.0 19.4 17.2 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 169 145 149 104 84 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 143 149 130 134 95 80 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -50.4 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 5 4 8 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 57 50 46 45 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 9 7 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 74 73 81 124 161 192 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 58 49 7 5 11 54 52 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 52 32 2 27 -135 -81 -22 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -719 -751 -750 -594 -377 107 213 73 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.5 38.0 38.3 38.6 39.5 41.6 46.9 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 87.8 85.7 82.8 79.9 73.0 65.8 58.7 51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 20 23 25 28 32 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 904 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 6. -4. -17. -26. -36. -44. -52. -64. -71. -74. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. -4. -9. -16. -21. -28. -34. -39. -46. -50. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.0 90.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.3% 7.8% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 32 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 30 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT