* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 43 44 45 45 44 46 46 47 48 48 51 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 36 35 39 40 41 41 40 41 42 43 43 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 10 11 12 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 0 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 77 38 40 37 62 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.7 30.1 30.1 28.9 25.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 166 166 153 114 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 67 69 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 50 59 51 59 11 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 42 29 30 22 2 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -17 -15 -17 -13 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 90 113 94 39 0 0 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.8 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.7 108.5 109.4 110.3 112.3 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 18 24 30 13 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 26. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 23.9% 20.5% 15.0% 11.1% 16.1% 14.7% 14.8% Logistic: 3.0% 10.5% 5.0% 1.4% 1.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 12.0% 8.6% 5.5% 4.1% 6.3% 5.1% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##