* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 129 123 116 101 89 79 70 57 44 29 20 18 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 114 81 57 44 32 29 28 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 136 86 59 45 32 28 28 29 36 36 33 28 27 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 25 24 22 18 14 15 22 38 59 84 92 80 69 52 34 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 4 -1 1 6 1 1 5 -7 -9 -6 -1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 254 266 265 257 252 286 269 256 238 230 230 225 225 233 235 237 246 SST (C) 29.9 30.6 31.6 31.4 31.0 29.8 29.8 28.2 26.2 19.7 19.2 14.7 13.2 12.1 11.7 11.7 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 173 173 172 172 167 169 145 122 85 83 74 70 67 66 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 164 173 172 165 142 148 132 112 80 78 71 67 65 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 -49.3 -49.3 -50.2 -51.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -50.5 -50.4 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -48.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.8 2.2 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 11 12 5 10 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 61 59 58 60 66 66 53 48 49 53 52 49 53 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 25 22 17 12 10 11 13 15 13 12 12 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -60 -58 -32 -38 -49 27 55 124 185 154 174 152 167 147 139 105 200 MB DIV 54 47 29 38 40 16 68 19 56 67 52 46 27 4 -4 -9 -28 700-850 TADV 13 27 12 13 22 8 41 7 -6 0 8 -98 -82 -61 -40 -44 -50 LAND (KM) 130 -2 -148 -285 -424 -576 -674 -516 -51 180 58 34 536 875 1139 1385 1368 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 33.6 35.5 36.8 37.7 39.4 41.9 45.2 48.9 51.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.3 93.5 93.3 93.0 91.2 87.6 82.2 75.2 67.8 60.3 52.9 47.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 14 19 25 30 31 31 27 20 15 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 7 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 3. 4. 4. -2. -11. -22. -32. -46. -58. -68. -77. -86. -92. -97. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -18. -19. -17. -13. -13. -13. -15. -20. -23. -22. -21. -23. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -17. -23. -24. -24. -21. -25. -28. -27. -23. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -7. -14. -29. -41. -51. -60. -73. -86.-101.-110.-112.-111.-118.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 28.5 93.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 14.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 28.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 6.4% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 0( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 114 81 57 44 32 29 28 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 96 72 59 47 44 43 44 36 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12HR AGO 130 127 126 102 89 77 74 73 74 66 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 107 95 92 91 92 84 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 99 96 95 96 88 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 IN 6HR 130 114 105 99 96 90 87 86 87 79 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT