* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 87 87 86 80 73 67 64 59 52 47 44 32 24 17 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 87 87 56 36 30 28 28 29 27 22 18 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 89 91 61 37 30 28 28 29 33 34 35 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 13 15 12 17 24 19 13 20 25 38 46 69 81 86 71 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 2 0 0 3 7 1 3 0 -8 -8 -14 -11 -4 SHEAR DIR 333 306 304 272 258 265 255 286 256 256 248 226 214 217 235 246 258 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.4 31.8 31.2 30.0 30.0 28.4 27.7 21.2 19.0 16.9 12.3 12.8 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 172 172 172 172 171 173 147 138 89 82 77 70 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 166 159 156 159 172 169 146 151 131 125 83 77 73 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -50.3 -51.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 12 13 9 12 4 11 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 61 58 60 58 59 62 62 52 52 56 55 48 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 26 26 25 26 20 15 11 10 9 7 9 14 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 12 -6 -11 -33 -66 -50 -35 -11 55 156 203 162 117 94 115 89 200 MB DIV 35 32 42 47 26 35 41 4 49 24 49 69 63 95 49 8 22 700-850 TADV -9 -4 0 7 13 9 25 18 39 7 10 -82 -79 -20 -52 -60 -27 LAND (KM) 400 356 275 203 109 -139 -413 -598 -695 -599 -175 41 80 30 241 692 1045 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.9 26.7 27.7 28.7 31.0 33.5 35.6 37.0 38.1 39.5 41.3 43.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.9 90.1 91.3 92.1 93.0 93.7 93.4 91.8 88.1 83.0 76.9 70.0 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 19 23 26 28 29 27 23 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 52 37 48 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -9. -16. -25. -35. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -5. -13. -20. -23. -26. -29. -26. -20. -20. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 12. 11. 5. -2. -8. -11. -16. -23. -28. -31. -43. -51. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 25.1 88.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 30.5% 22.8% 20.7% 13.8% 10.2% 10.2% 8.5% Logistic: 15.0% 29.8% 22.2% 29.0% 16.5% 18.4% 6.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 14.3% 19.0% 5.3% 2.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 16.6% 26.4% 16.7% 17.3% 10.2% 9.9% 5.5% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 10( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 84 87 87 56 36 30 28 28 29 27 22 18 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 79 82 82 51 31 25 23 23 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 74 43 23 17 15 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 79 84 75 69 65 45 39 37 37 38 36 31 27 26 DIS DIS