* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/24/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 53 54 62 69 74 74 68 62 59 57 54 50 39 27 V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 52 53 61 67 73 48 33 29 28 28 31 28 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 54 58 63 67 46 33 28 27 28 32 33 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 14 15 4 11 12 19 24 15 30 36 45 51 79 91 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 -1 -2 5 4 4 0 1 3 4 2 -3 1 4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 347 356 1 354 2 11 311 249 261 247 282 271 265 252 244 229 227 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 31.0 30.6 30.4 30.1 30.3 30.5 31.7 30.7 30.1 30.0 28.6 23.8 19.8 20.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 173 173 173 172 172 172 173 174 173 149 101 85 86 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 174 174 173 172 162 160 159 172 161 152 152 132 92 80 82 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.6 -49.6 -49.4 -49.5 -50.6 -51.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 12 8 13 5 8 3 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 56 55 59 61 60 61 58 62 68 67 57 53 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 21 21 24 25 26 24 20 15 12 13 14 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -6 11 7 9 39 -13 -31 -86 -78 -76 -21 34 67 84 79 99 200 MB DIV 46 29 7 16 -5 29 35 31 21 41 43 59 20 45 47 53 43 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -11 -6 -1 -6 0 11 2 17 8 42 1 14 4 -16 -103 LAND (KM) 69 46 28 57 219 408 239 87 -165 -405 -568 -583 -323 44 242 243 228 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 25.2 27.0 28.8 31.2 33.8 35.8 36.9 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.7 81.4 83.0 84.5 86.0 88.8 91.1 92.6 92.7 91.7 88.9 84.4 79.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 13 14 17 19 21 25 32 35 34 HEAT CONTENT 66 77 117 158 66 55 47 50 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 25. 28. 29. 26. 24. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -18. -27. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -12. -17. -16. -15. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 12. 19. 24. 24. 18. 12. 9. 7. 4. 0. -11. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.0 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 96.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.60 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 33.1% 18.8% 12.8% 10.7% 21.1% 25.1% 22.3% Logistic: 4.7% 22.7% 15.0% 9.3% 7.4% 15.1% 12.5% 17.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% Consensus: 4.8% 21.1% 11.8% 7.4% 6.0% 12.2% 12.8% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/24/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/24/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 52 52 53 61 67 73 48 33 29 28 28 31 28 16 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 52 60 66 72 47 32 28 27 27 30 27 15 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 55 61 67 42 27 23 22 22 25 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 49 55 61 36 21 17 16 16 19 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT