* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 65 66 63 60 55 51 51 50 51 53 54 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 65 66 55 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 66 66 56 40 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 19 24 26 31 33 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 8 6 -2 2 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 223 206 216 219 211 219 218 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.1 30.0 30.2 30.9 31.3 31.8 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 170 171 171 171 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 166 154 150 152 162 170 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 7 9 5 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 51 52 51 49 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 13 14 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 26 20 1 7 5 2 11 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 72 58 28 22 33 10 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 4 13 23 20 14 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 307 412 319 210 105 -20 -52 -123 -257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.4 30.2 30.8 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.7 88.2 88.7 89.2 90.7 92.4 94.1 95.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 56 50 52 52 46 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. -0. -5. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.3 87.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 18.0% 11.1% 8.2% 7.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 9.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.3% 5.5% 4.1% 3.2% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 65 65 66 55 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 62 51 36 28 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 46 31 23 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 40 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT