* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 43 44 49 55 65 76 83 82 78 75 75 74 70 67 V (KT) LAND 40 44 38 35 39 36 46 56 66 73 46 33 29 27 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 37 34 37 34 40 46 54 63 43 32 28 27 28 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 17 16 9 11 4 13 13 15 20 15 31 38 63 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 1 -2 1 -2 -4 -2 3 3 5 1 0 0 9 SHEAR DIR 318 325 327 330 338 353 7 297 299 268 256 237 240 237 255 256 238 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 30.1 31.2 30.8 30.9 30.6 30.4 30.5 30.7 31.6 31.1 30.2 30.2 28.6 27.4 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 174 171 174 174 174 174 173 172 172 172 172 172 172 174 150 135 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 171 174 174 174 174 173 164 163 163 172 165 146 152 135 122 78 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.7 -50.5 -51.0 -52.0 -51.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 12 8 12 5 10 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 56 57 60 56 57 57 56 59 60 62 62 52 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 19 22 24 24 19 15 14 16 17 23 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 -5 -21 -26 3 -9 17 -11 -31 -63 -53 -15 37 70 93 79 200 MB DIV 50 46 28 18 26 -11 11 36 40 34 21 39 32 53 12 -14 5 700-850 TADV 4 2 -9 -8 -11 -13 -14 -7 -1 9 -1 11 -17 23 12 -10 -72 LAND (KM) -42 45 -44 -22 16 -11 257 388 213 66 -150 -395 -559 -662 -618 -151 58 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.2 29.0 31.1 33.6 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 74.1 76.0 77.8 79.7 83.0 86.0 88.5 90.5 92.0 92.5 92.0 90.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 16 15 12 12 11 11 11 11 16 23 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 71 66 54 63 62 135 70 57 49 53 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 30. 35. 39. 40. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -3. -7. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 3. 5. 4. -4. -10. -11. -9. -8. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 25. 36. 43. 42. 38. 35. 35. 34. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 72.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.94 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.8% 11.3% 7.9% 7.6% 12.1% 18.4% 31.2% Logistic: 10.4% 24.1% 13.7% 12.7% 11.7% 25.3% 37.6% 41.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 13.9% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1% 4.1% Consensus: 6.5% 19.6% 9.6% 7.0% 6.5% 12.8% 19.0% 25.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 38 35 39 36 46 56 66 73 46 33 29 27 28 29 31 18HR AGO 40 39 33 30 34 31 41 51 61 68 41 28 24 22 23 24 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 37 34 44 54 64 71 44 31 27 25 26 27 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 31 41 51 61 68 41 28 24 22 23 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT