* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 74 79 82 75 69 64 60 58 59 59 60 62 60 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 74 79 82 75 69 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 67 73 78 85 84 77 71 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 19 18 12 23 22 29 31 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 0 5 2 0 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 217 241 255 226 220 203 213 201 215 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.8 31.0 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 172 171 172 171 171 171 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 170 171 172 157 158 159 158 161 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 60 60 53 55 49 51 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 10 11 13 14 15 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 13 4 30 18 22 8 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 80 58 39 64 43 31 17 43 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 21 17 2 25 16 16 6 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 135 196 281 368 271 126 74 23 -67 -155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.1 24.9 26.6 28.0 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.0 86.5 87.1 87.7 89.1 90.7 92.5 94.3 95.8 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 100 69 53 46 54 54 40 54 52 33 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. -4. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 19. 24. 27. 20. 14. 9. 5. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.4 85.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.53 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.6% 52.9% 37.4% 24.9% 18.4% 29.1% 22.4% 12.3% Logistic: 21.9% 51.3% 37.7% 25.6% 10.9% 18.4% 12.7% 3.5% Bayesian: 21.6% 37.1% 19.2% 22.2% 4.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 23.0% 47.1% 31.4% 24.2% 11.4% 16.8% 12.2% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 7( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 65 69 74 79 82 75 69 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 67 72 75 68 62 39 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 60 65 68 61 55 32 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 55 58 51 45 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT