* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 48 54 59 61 60 54 51 49 51 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 45 51 55 58 57 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 45 49 52 54 53 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 4 10 13 19 20 24 27 32 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 -1 -5 1 -2 4 -1 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 173 205 204 204 262 207 220 201 210 210 228 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.5 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 171 171 172 172 172 171 171 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 170 165 165 163 164 162 167 170 159 161 160 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 11 7 11 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 68 66 63 57 56 55 55 57 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 9 8 8 8 8 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 32 27 39 62 38 23 15 3 16 32 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 91 70 60 60 41 47 34 23 13 16 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 2 1 13 6 5 15 6 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 248 191 113 24 89 304 386 279 122 -51 -164 -310 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.4 24.0 25.7 27.1 28.2 29.2 29.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.2 85.6 86.1 86.7 88.1 89.7 91.4 93.0 94.4 95.8 97.0 98.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 9 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 113 124 119 97 58 36 57 75 54 50 49 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 36. 41. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 25. 19. 16. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 84.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.90 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 102.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.63 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.91 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 49.4% 35.7% 21.8% 15.4% 22.3% 26.3% 33.3% Logistic: 10.9% 50.2% 30.3% 18.6% 9.2% 24.0% 22.7% 22.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 16.6% 5.8% 2.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% Consensus: 9.8% 38.7% 23.9% 14.3% 8.7% 15.8% 16.7% 18.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 42 45 51 55 58 57 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 42 48 52 55 54 41 30 26 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 44 48 51 50 37 26 22 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 36 40 43 42 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT