* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 33 40 48 54 58 58 54 48 45 44 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 33 33 43 49 53 53 43 32 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 31 37 40 43 44 37 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 14 10 20 19 29 34 39 36 35 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 3 0 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -7 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 136 190 227 241 248 240 229 211 227 232 250 254 268 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.8 30.4 30.6 30.6 31.0 31.4 32.1 32.1 31.7 31.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 171 166 172 172 172 171 171 170 170 171 171 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 167 165 163 162 153 165 168 165 168 171 170 170 171 160 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 10 7 11 7 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 76 73 69 69 66 64 60 62 57 58 50 52 47 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 44 36 28 43 56 37 24 22 -13 4 -40 -20 -21 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 93 99 69 66 46 57 31 27 12 24 4 17 16 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 4 9 -3 10 3 16 6 8 1 0 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 178 236 247 190 133 -14 169 406 298 143 -27 -195 -349 -517 -690 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 19.9 21.4 23.0 24.8 26.6 28.4 29.9 31.3 32.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.6 85.2 85.6 86.1 87.3 88.7 90.3 91.8 93.1 94.1 94.8 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 73 104 122 119 99 33 40 65 57 45 14 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 45. 47. 50. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. -7. -12. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 18. 24. 28. 28. 24. 18. 15. 14. 15. 17. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.4 84.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 103.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.64 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.95 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 45.8% 31.0% 14.9% 12.2% 18.6% 23.9% 36.2% Logistic: 7.2% 45.9% 27.0% 18.0% 9.0% 23.3% 25.3% 43.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% Consensus: 5.5% 32.0% 19.9% 11.0% 7.1% 14.1% 16.5% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 33 33 43 49 53 53 43 32 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 32 32 42 48 52 52 42 31 28 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 28 38 44 48 48 38 27 24 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 22 32 38 42 42 32 21 18 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT