* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 43 51 57 62 64 65 58 55 51 51 54 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 46 51 53 54 39 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 34 36 40 36 39 43 47 46 36 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 4 5 10 13 18 19 26 27 31 29 35 29 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 1 2 2 -2 -4 0 -1 3 0 2 0 2 0 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 67 78 124 200 225 205 256 205 214 199 216 215 221 228 228 258 311 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.8 30.6 31.0 31.9 32.1 32.1 32.1 31.9 31.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 171 171 170 172 172 172 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 165 162 164 159 160 167 170 160 164 170 169 169 169 168 158 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 8 10 6 9 6 12 7 14 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 73 70 67 63 61 61 61 62 59 60 55 54 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 45 40 39 53 27 35 14 13 -6 -21 -31 -8 3 -22 -24 200 MB DIV 52 72 90 88 63 65 54 55 38 57 13 11 9 0 -31 -13 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 1 4 1 13 3 2 17 3 7 0 7 1 12 7 LAND (KM) 62 112 178 207 138 -7 67 307 361 207 69 -82 -213 -337 -432 -515 -599 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 20.5 22.1 24.0 25.9 27.7 29.1 30.3 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.2 87.3 88.5 89.8 91.2 92.6 93.7 94.5 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 65 94 112 96 46 38 59 73 46 60 7 7 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -7. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 34. 35. 28. 25. 21. 21. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 83.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.87 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.96 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 31.6% 18.7% 8.2% 7.8% 15.1% 23.4% 44.6% Logistic: 6.3% 36.7% 19.4% 8.7% 3.8% 14.8% 23.8% 29.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 8.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 2.4% Consensus: 4.5% 25.8% 13.2% 5.8% 4.0% 10.4% 15.8% 25.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 46 51 53 54 39 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 35 38 44 49 51 52 37 29 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 30 33 39 44 46 47 32 24 21 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 32 37 39 40 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT