* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 46 54 63 66 75 73 73 70 70 67 68 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 46 41 46 48 58 56 56 53 36 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 42 38 40 46 52 56 55 53 36 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 13 8 4 4 10 6 15 13 23 23 22 23 23 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 0 0 0 3 -3 3 1 4 0 3 -3 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 84 63 70 95 89 123 220 197 220 195 211 203 222 227 238 247 286 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 29.6 30.2 30.5 30.8 30.5 31.0 31.1 31.9 32.2 32.1 32.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 171 171 171 171 171 162 172 171 171 171 170 169 169 169 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 170 171 170 165 164 152 161 165 167 157 162 160 169 169 170 169 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 10 9 13 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 77 75 71 65 62 57 61 60 60 52 47 41 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 9 14 12 11 8 6 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 46 55 48 49 55 39 35 52 23 32 -20 -31 -44 -5 -45 200 MB DIV 111 65 83 105 88 69 55 60 49 53 24 28 -7 -6 -11 -33 -28 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 1 1 0 11 0 20 8 18 5 2 4 2 3 8 LAND (KM) 55 43 41 106 183 95 -57 105 323 381 264 133 3 -93 -203 -326 -443 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.5 19.0 20.6 22.3 24.0 25.8 27.2 28.4 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.6 84.4 85.0 85.5 86.6 87.8 89.1 90.4 91.7 92.8 93.8 94.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 47 51 68 90 84 34 39 69 72 52 47 47 7 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. 4. 1. -2. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 33. 36. 45. 43. 43. 40. 40. 37. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 82.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.98 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 29.4% 15.1% 7.7% 7.3% 15.9% 25.1% 56.3% Logistic: 5.4% 33.2% 16.2% 6.7% 2.8% 13.0% 23.3% 26.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.6% 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% Consensus: 4.0% 23.9% 11.5% 4.9% 3.5% 10.7% 17.3% 29.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 FOURTEEN 08/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 46 41 46 48 58 56 56 53 36 30 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 44 39 44 46 56 54 54 51 34 28 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 34 39 41 51 49 49 46 29 23 21 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 25 30 32 42 40 40 37 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT