* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132020 08/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 36 39 44 47 48 50 53 53 58 56 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 36 39 44 47 48 50 53 53 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 34 37 39 41 42 34 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 9 15 19 6 10 8 15 14 14 12 14 12 18 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 2 2 4 -1 0 -1 1 -2 0 0 -2 7 0 3 SHEAR DIR 240 249 226 233 256 253 270 354 357 31 1 1 334 312 294 263 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 30.5 31.2 30.5 30.3 30.0 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 151 152 156 158 158 158 174 173 172 171 169 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 150 151 154 156 155 154 174 173 163 155 144 148 150 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 7 11 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 57 56 57 61 62 62 64 66 66 67 62 60 56 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 13 10 10 10 9 7 7 4 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 14 12 11 10 -5 -38 -67 -73 -65 -55 -65 -48 -89 -67 -45 200 MB DIV 31 26 4 -24 -13 22 20 -9 2 19 23 10 16 10 13 14 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -14 -9 -3 -12 -6 -12 -19 -9 -5 5 3 6 11 -3 LAND (KM) 839 699 517 340 176 161 111 145 148 7 96 160 39 -90 -224 -361 -490 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.9 20.8 22.0 23.5 25.1 26.7 28.3 29.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.4 59.1 60.8 62.5 64.2 67.6 71.1 74.7 78.0 81.0 83.3 84.8 86.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 53 47 48 76 64 49 48 76 67 59 35 32 5 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 42. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -14. -18. -17. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 20. 23. 23. 28. 27. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 57.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.2% 8.4% 5.9% 5.1% 8.3% 11.0% 16.5% Logistic: 4.8% 9.4% 6.7% 5.1% 2.0% 5.8% 11.7% 31.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 2.2% 9.2% Consensus: 3.4% 8.3% 5.5% 3.7% 2.4% 4.9% 8.3% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 THIRTEEN 08/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 33 36 39 44 47 48 50 53 53 39 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 34 37 42 45 46 48 51 51 37 29 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 38 41 42 44 47 47 33 25 22 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 31 34 35 37 40 40 26 18 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT