* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 47 43 37 33 28 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 47 43 37 33 28 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 48 45 41 35 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 7 13 17 16 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 11 9 5 4 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 189 194 185 157 178 178 200 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.6 25.4 24.5 24.5 23.1 22.4 22.4 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 130 117 108 108 93 85 85 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 57 55 53 46 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 30 8 -7 8 -6 5 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 8 -7 -11 15 0 -6 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -6 -20 -15 -3 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 139 194 187 196 315 423 510 522 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.4 27.7 28.7 29.5 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.7 114.5 115.4 116.2 118.2 120.0 121.4 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -6. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -27. -34. -36. -39. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.9 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##