* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 45 39 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 45 39 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 49 46 39 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 11 8 19 17 22 24 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 8 8 13 3 5 1 7 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 189 171 187 177 163 163 161 192 184 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.4 24.6 23.8 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 129 117 109 101 87 86 83 80 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 59 56 53 50 42 44 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 18 16 15 15 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 21 30 26 2 8 -1 19 15 37 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 9 21 -4 -22 14 28 6 35 26 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -8 -7 -19 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 107 84 131 170 161 217 361 466 518 470 432 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.4 26.0 27.2 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.8 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 117.1 119.0 120.8 121.9 122.5 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -33. -39. -50. -60. -63. -66. -70. -73. -78. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.6 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##